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SabahKu

Kinabatangan

Typology: Plantation & agrarian frontier · Structural peers: Beluran, Tatau (Sarawak), Kalabakan · Latest survey 2024 · district GDP 2020

WELFAREIncome: 78th percentile in Sabah (2024)IncomePoverty: 33th percentile in Sabah (2024)PovertyGini: 81th percentile in Sabah (2024)GiniGDP/cap: 81th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDP/capSTRUCTUREServices: 0th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveServicesAgri: 100th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveAgriMfg: 23th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveMfgDensity: 23th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveDensityMOMENTUMInc. growth: 58th percentile in Sabah (2024)Inc.growthGDP growth: 4th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDPgrowthLFPR: 58th percentile in Sabah (2024)LFPRJobless: 77th percentile in Sabah (2024)JoblessACCESSWater: 31th percentile in Sabah (2024)WaterPower: 64th percentile in Sabah (2024)PowerLIGHTSRadiance: 23th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveRadianceLit area: 19th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveLit areaLights growth: 31th percentile in Sabah (2025)Lightsgrowth
worse ← percentile in Sabah → betterstructure: lower → higher (not good/bad) boundary change
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Median household income

RM 4,897

▲ better than peers (RM 4,409)

7th of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

Absolute poverty rate

26.7%

▼ worse than peers (13.6%)

19th of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

GDP per capita

RM 17,599

▲ better than peers (RM 14,331)

6th of 27 in Sabah

Derived · 2020

Unemployment rate

8.2%

▼ worse than peers (5.9%)

7th of 27 in Sabah

DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

Diagnose

What's working, what's holding it back

Rule-based, not a black box: a strength is above its structural peers and not worsening; a concern is below peers and not improving. Thresholds are published.

What's working

  • +GDP / capita of RM 17,599 (2020) is 23% above its structural peers (RM 14,331).Strength

    Derived · 2020

  • +Median income of RM 4,897 (2024) is 11% above its structural peers (RM 4,409), growing 5.1 pp/yr faster than Sabah (2022–2024).Strength

    DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

  • +Electricity of 100.0% (2024) is 11.0 pp above its structural peers (89.0%), improving since 2022.Strength

    DOSM · hh_access_amenities · 2024

  • +Participation of 70.6% (2024) is 1.9 pp above its structural peers (68.7%), improving since 2023.Strength

    DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

  • +Income growth of 3.6% (2024) is 0.7 pp/yr above its structural peers (2.9%).Strength

    Derived · 2024

What's holding it back

  • −GDP growth of −4.9% (2020) is 6.1 pp/yr below its structural peers (1.2%).Concern

    Derived · 2020

  • −Piped water of 75.3% (2024) is 4.2 pp below its structural peers (79.5%), worsening since 2022.Concern

    DOSM · hh_access_amenities · 2024

  • −Unemployment of 8.2% (2024) is 2.3 pp above its structural peers (5.9%), broadly unchanged 2023–2024.Concern

    DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

Mixed signals

  • Poverty of 26.7% (2024) is 13.1 pp above its structural peers (13.6%), improving since 2022.

    DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

Project

Where the economy is heading

DOSM last published district GDP for 2020. Values after that are nowcasts built from Sabah's published sector growth, then projections to 2028. Shaded bands are 80% intervals calibrated on backtests; see the model card.
Real GDP, RM million (2015 prices)
2,0002,2002,4002,6002,8003,0003,2002016201820202022202420262028OFFICIALNOWCASTPROJECTION2,484
Official: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply (to 2020). Nowcast & projection: model forecast-2026.09.26-74e1d087. Backtest error at 3 years: 5.6% for this district.
Median household income, RM / month (nominal)
RM 4,000RM 4,500RM 5,000RM 5,500RM 6,000201920222024202520262027OFFICIALPROJECTIONRM 5,268
Official: DOSM hh_income_district (2019, 2022, 2024). Projection follows Sabah's long-run trend.

Diagnose · why

Luck of the sector mix, or its own merit?

Shift-share splits GDP growth into what Sabah (or Malaysia) grew anyway, what the district's sector mix added, and a competitive effect: how its sectors did against the same sectors elsewhere, the most honest answer to “is it doing well on its own merits?”
Why did Kinabatangan's GDP change, 2015–2019?
All sectorsBenchmark growth: 455.1 RM milIndustry mix: -558.4 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -256.1 RM mil−7.9% ownMining & quarryingBenchmark growth: 1.2 RM milIndustry mix: 5.5 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -0.9 RM mil−1ServicesBenchmark growth: 51.4 RM milIndustry mix: 36.7 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -50.6 RM mil−51AgricultureBenchmark growth: 392.2 RM milIndustry mix: -598.5 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -178.3 RM mil−178ConstructionBenchmark growth: 3.4 RM milIndustry mix: 3.1 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -21.2 RM mil−21ManufacturingBenchmark growth: 6.8 RM milIndustry mix: -5.2 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -5.1 RM mil−5
RM million, 2015 prices. Benchmark: Sabah (+14.1% over the window). The three effects add up exactly to the actual change. Source: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply; offshore oil & gas (Supra) excluded.
Benchmark growthIndustry mixCompetitive (own merit)

Diagnose · associated factors

Above or below what its structure predicts?

A model trained on all Malaysian districts estimates what a district with this structure would typically record. The gap and the factors behind the estimate are associations, not causes.

Median household income, 2024

Actual RM 4,897 vs expected RM 4,241: better than structure predicts

Agriculture share of GDP-14.9%Share aged 65++10.5%Unemployment rate-6.2%Labour force participation+5.8%Population density-5.2%Piped-water access-2.8%
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (ridge regression, exact linear contributions). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±RM 649.

Absolute poverty rate, 2024

Actual 26.7% vs expected 22.4%: worse than structure predicts

Unemployment rate+9.0 ppPiped-water access+4.1 ppServices share of GDP+3.3 ppAgriculture share of GDP+1.6 ppGDP per capita (2020)-1.5 ppShare aged 65++1.1 pp
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (LightGBM, SHAP values). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±4.1%.

Compare

Structural peers

The five districts nationally most similar in economic structure (income level, GDP per capita, sector mix, density, age, labour participation, water access), whatever their state.
  1. 1BeluranSabahPlantation & agrarian frontier
  2. 2TatauSarawakPlantation & agrarian frontier
  3. 3KalabakanSabahPlantation & agrarian frontier
  4. 4SebauhSarawakPlantation & agrarian frontier
  5. 5BelagaSarawakPlantation & agrarian frontier

Positive deviance

Among its ten nearest structural neighbours, Beluran (Sabah) improved fastest since 2019: welfare momentum +11.7 vs +4.7 here (income growth %/yr minus poverty change pp/yr).

Where it differs most:

  • share aged 65+: higher (3.07 → 4.80, √share)
  • manufacturing share: higher (1.29 → 3.02, √share)
  • labour force participation: lower (70.60 → 65.60)

A lead to investigate, not a prescription.

Lights

Kinabatangan after dark

NASA's Black Marble satellite pictures of the district at night, 2012 against 2025: +23% over 13 years. Lights track where people, roads and industry are; they are a proxy, not a measure of output. Play every year on the map.
2012151 · 11th of 27
2025186 · 15th of 27

Data

Every indicator, with its source

IndicatorLatestYearTrendSabah rankSource
Mean household consumption expenditureRM / monthRM 2,482202426/28 (desc.)hies_district
Gini coefficient of household incomeindex (0–1)0.30820246/28hh_inequality_district
Mean household incomeRM / monthRM 5,632202410/28hh_income_district
Median household incomeRM / monthRM 4,89720247/28hh_income_district
Absolute poverty rate% of households26.7%202419/28hh_poverty_district
Relative poverty rate% of households10.4%20247/28hh_poverty_district
Employment-to-population ratio% of working-age64.8%202410/27lfs_district
Labour forcethousand persons91.120246/27 (desc.)lfs_district
Labour force participation rate% of working-age70.6%202412/27lfs_district
Unemployment rate% of labour force8.2%20247/27lfs_district
Households with electricity% of households100.0%20241/26hh_access_amenities
Households with piped water% of households75.3%202419/27hh_access_amenities
Households with improved sanitation% of households100.0%20241/27hh_access_amenities
GDP per capitaRM / person / yearRM 17,5992020single year6/27Derived
GDP at constant 2015 pricesRM million2,518.520205/27 (desc.)gdp_district_real_supply
Agriculture share of GDP% of GDP81.7%20201/27 (desc.)Derived
Construction share of GDP% of GDP0.3%202020/27 (desc.)Derived
Manufacturing share of GDP% of GDP1.7%202021/27 (desc.)Derived
Mining & quarrying share of GDP% of GDP0.5%20208/27 (desc.)Derived
Services share of GDP% of GDP15.8%202027/27 (desc.)Derived
Population densitypersons / km²23202521/27 (desc.)Derived
Populationthousand persons164.820257/27 (desc.)population_district
Population aged 65 and over% of population3.6%202527/27 (desc.)population_district
Non-citizen share of population% of population72.9%20251/27 (desc.)population_district
Real GDP growth, 2015–2020 average% / year−4.9%2020single year26/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2020
Median income growth since 2019% / year3.6%2024single year12/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2019–2024
Night-light growth, 2015 to latest year% / year2.3%2025single year19/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2025
Population growth, 2020–latest% / year2.9%2025single year4/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ Growth window 2020–2025
Share of land that is lit at night% of land area2.3%202522/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Average night-time light radiancenW·cm⁻²·sr⁻¹0.03202521/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Total night-time light (gap-filled)radiance × km² (index)186202515/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002

Advise

AI Analyst brief

AI-generated · unreviewed draft

Situation

Kinabatangan is classified as a "Plantation & agrarian frontier" district with an agriculture share of GDP equal to 81.7% in 2020 .

Median household income in 2024 was RM 4,897 .

Real GDP at constant 2015 prices was RM 2,518 in 2020 .

Model nowcasts place the district's real GDP central estimates at p50 2,464 (80% interval RM 2,384–2,562 million) for 2021, 2,483 (80% interval RM 2,350–2,685 million) for 2022, and 2,504 (80% interval RM 2,389–2,867 million) for 2023 .

Read the full brief with sources · Ask a follow-up