Project
Nowcasts and projections
District GDP has not been published since 2020 and household surveys arrive every two to three years, so the atlas has only a handful of official points per district. The response: nowcast from Sabah's published sector data, calibrate intervals on backtests, and label every modelled value.
Median error, 1-year nowcast
1.5%
all Malaysian districts, backtest from 2017
Median error, 3-year nowcast
2.9%
Sabah, leave-one-state-out: 4.8%
Naive benchmark, 3-year
3.9%
constant share of state GDP
All districts
Where each district is heading
Pick a scenario to shift Sabah's sector growth. These are transparent sensitivities, not predictions of commodity prices. How the forecasts work.
Hatched: every value on this map is modelled. Colour is relative to the median district (+3.9%/yr): teal faster, red slower. Scenarios shift Sabah's sector growth transparently; see methodology.
| District | GDP 2020 official | 2025 nowcast | 2028 projection p50 (p10–p90) | Growth 25→28 | Median income 2027 p50 (p10–p90) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BeaufortInterior | 767 | 920+3.7%/yr | 1,040944–1,306 | +4.1% | RM 4,379RM 3,790–RM 5,078 · 2024: RM 4,070 |
| BeluranSandakan | 1,882 | 1,922+0.4%/yr | 1,9801,797–2,488 | +1.0% | RM 4,772RM 4,131–RM 5,535 · 2024: RM 4,436 |
| KalabakanTawau | 508 | 539+1.2%/yr | 571518–718 | +1.9% | RM 3,555RM 3,077–RM 4,122 · 2024: RM 3,304 |
| KeningauInterior | 1,453 | 1,739+3.7%/yr | 1,9661,785–2,470 | +4.2% | RM 5,165RM 4,471–RM 5,990 · 2024: RM 4,801 |
| KinabatanganSandakan | 2,518 | 2,470−0.4%/yr | 2,4842,255–3,122 | +0.2% | RM 5,268RM 4,561–RM 6,110 · 2024: RM 4,897 |
| Kota BeludWest Coast | 658 | 774+3.3%/yr | 867787–1,089 | +3.9% | RM 3,778RM 3,271–RM 4,382 · 2024: RM 3,512 |
| Kota KinabaluWest Coast | 19,966 | 25,331+4.9%/yr | 29,35826,654–36,890 | +5.0% | RM 6,343RM 5,491–RM 7,356 · 2024: RM 5,896 |
| Kota MaruduKudat | 567 | 670+3.4%/yr | 753684–946 | +4.0% | RM 3,095RM 2,679–RM 3,589 · 2024: RM 2,877 |
| Kuala PenyuInterior | 156 | 183+3.3%/yr | 206187–259 | +4.0% | RM 4,016RM 3,477–RM 4,657 · 2024: RM 3,733 |
| KudatKudat | 787 | 889+2.5%/yr | 973883–1,222 | +3.0% | RM 3,495RM 3,026–RM 4,054 · 2024: RM 3,249 |
| KunakTawau | 640 | 689+1.5%/yr | 739671–929 | +2.4% | RM 4,883RM 4,227–RM 5,663 · 2024: RM 4,539 |
| Lahad DatuTawau | 4,489 | 4,972+2.1%/yr | 5,3974,900–6,782 | +2.8% | RM 5,945RM 5,146–RM 6,895 · 2024: RM 5,526 |
| NabawanInterior | 268 | 287+1.4%/yr | 308279–387 | +2.3% | RM 4,692RM 4,061–RM 5,441 · 2024: RM 4,361 |
| PaparWest Coast | 1,397 | 1,755+4.7%/yr | 2,0331,846–2,555 | +5.0% | RM 5,570RM 4,821–RM 6,459 · 2024: RM 5,177 |
| PenampangWest Coast | 1,925 | 2,599+6.2%/yr | 3,0962,811–3,891 | +6.0% | RM 6,552RM 5,672–RM 7,598 · 2024: RM 6,090 |
| PitasKudat | 287 | 314+1.8%/yr | 337306–424 | +2.4% | RM 2,996RM 2,594–RM 3,475 · 2024: RM 2,785 |
| PutatanWest Coast | 521 | 673+5.3%/yr | 793720–997 | +5.6% | RM 7,061RM 6,112–RM 8,188 · 2024: RM 6,563 |
| RanauWest Coast | 700 | 849+3.9%/yr | 967878–1,215 | +4.4% | RM 3,733RM 3,232–RM 4,329 · 2024: RM 3,470 |
| SandakanSandakan | 7,911 | 9,243+3.2%/yr | 10,3419,389–12,994 | +3.8% | RM 5,717RM 4,949–RM 6,630 · 2024: RM 5,314 |
| SempornaTawau | 1,647 | 1,803+1.8%/yr | 1,9371,759–2,434 | +2.4% | RM 4,367RM 3,780–RM 5,064 · 2024: RM 4,059 |
| SipitangInterior | 507 | 626+4.3%/yr | 691628–869 | +3.4% | RM 4,955RM 4,290–RM 5,747 · 2024: RM 4,606 |
| TambunanInterior | 151 | 179+3.4%/yr | 203184–255 | +4.2% | RM 5,222RM 4,521–RM 6,056 · 2024: RM 4,854 |
| TawauTawau | 6,535 | 7,666+3.2%/yr | 8,5867,796–10,789 | +3.9% | RM 5,220RM 4,519–RM 6,054 · 2024: RM 4,852 |
| TelupidSandakan | 606 | 670+2.0%/yr | 730663–917 | +2.9% | RM 4,829RM 4,181–RM 5,601 · 2024: RM 4,489 |
| TenomInterior | 402 | 497+4.3%/yr | 570518–717 | +4.7% | RM 4,477RM 3,875–RM 5,191 · 2024: RM 4,161 |
| TongodSandakan | 193 | 225+3.1%/yr | 251228–315 | +3.8% | RM 3,733RM 3,232–RM 4,329 · 2024: RM 3,470 |
| TuaranWest Coast | 1,299 | 1,551+3.6%/yr | 1,7451,584–2,193 | +4.0% | RM 4,601RM 3,983–RM 5,336 · 2024: RM 4,277 |
GDP: RM million at 2015 prices. Official values: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply (to 2020) and hh_income_district (to 2024). Teal figures are modelled.