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SabahKu

Kota Kinabalu

Typology: Metropolitan & industrial core · Structural peers: Kuching (Sarawak), Miri (Sarawak), Penampang · Latest survey 2024 · district GDP 2020

WELFAREIncome: 93th percentile in Sabah (2024)IncomePoverty: 87th percentile in Sabah (2024)PovertyGini: 11th percentile in Sabah (2024)GiniGDP/cap: 100th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDP/capSTRUCTUREServices: 92th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveServicesAgri: 8th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveAgriMfg: 54th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveMfgDensity: 96th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveDensityMOMENTUMInc. growth: 8th percentile in Sabah (2024)Inc.growthGDP growth: 81th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDPgrowthLFPR: 100th percentile in Sabah (2024)LFPRJobless: 96th percentile in Sabah (2024)JoblessACCESSWater: 81th percentile in Sabah (2024)WaterPower: 64th percentile in Sabah (2024)PowerLIGHTSRadiance: 96th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveRadianceLit area: 96th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveLit areaLights growth: 19th percentile in Sabah (2025)Lightsgrowth
worse ← percentile in Sabah → betterstructure: lower → higher (not good/bad) boundary change
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Median household income

RM 5,896

▼ worse than peers (RM 6,741)

3rd of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

Absolute poverty rate

12.0%

▼ worse than peers (3.8%)

4th of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

GDP per capita

RM 39,901

≈ in line with peers (RM 38,833)

1st of 27 in Sabah

Derived · 2020

Unemployment rate

5.9%

▼ worse than peers (2.7%)

2nd of 27 in Sabah

DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

Diagnose

What's working, what's holding it back

Rule-based, not a black box: a strength is above its structural peers and not worsening; a concern is below peers and not improving. Thresholds are published.

What's working

  • +Participation of 76.2% (2024) is 3.3 pp above its structural peers (72.9%), improving since 2023.Strength

    DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

What's holding it back

  • −Median income of RM 5,896 (2024) is 13% below its structural peers (RM 6,741), growing 3.9 pp/yr slower than Sabah (2022–2024).Concern

    DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

  • −Poverty of 12.0% (2024) is 8.2 pp above its structural peers (3.8%), worsening since 2022.Concern

    DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

  • −Income growth of −0.4% (2024) is 3.6 pp/yr below its structural peers (3.3%).Concern

    Derived · 2024

  • −Unemployment of 5.9% (2024) is 3.2 pp above its structural peers (2.7%), broadly unchanged 2023–2024.Concern

    DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

Mixed signals

  • Piped water of 96.2% (2024) is 3.2 pp below its structural peers (99.4%), improving since 2022.

    DOSM · hh_access_amenities · 2024

  • Gini of 0.426 (2024) is 0.094 above its structural peers (0.332), improving since 2022.

    DOSM · hh_inequality_district · 2024

Project

Where the economy is heading

DOSM last published district GDP for 2020. Values after that are nowcasts built from Sabah's published sector growth, then projections to 2028. Shaded bands are 80% intervals calibrated on backtests; see the model card.
Real GDP, RM million (2015 prices)
20,00025,00030,00035,00040,0002016201820202022202420262028OFFICIALNOWCASTPROJECTION29,358
Official: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply (to 2020). Nowcast & projection: model forecast-2026.09.26-74e1d087. Backtest error at 3 years: 0.3% for this district.
Median household income, RM / month (nominal)
RM 5,500RM 6,000RM 6,500RM 7,000RM 7,500201920222024202520262027OFFICIALPROJECTIONRM 6,343
Official: DOSM hh_income_district (2019, 2022, 2024). Projection follows Sabah's long-run trend.

Diagnose · why

Luck of the sector mix, or its own merit?

Shift-share splits GDP growth into what Sabah (or Malaysia) grew anyway, what the district's sector mix added, and a competitive effect: how its sectors did against the same sectors elsewhere, the most honest answer to “is it doing well on its own merits?”
Why did Kota Kinabalu's GDP change, 2015–2019?
All sectorsBenchmark growth: 2432.9 RM milIndustry mix: 1647.0 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 1104.8 RM mil+6.4% ownMining & quarryingBenchmark growth: 60.5 RM milIndustry mix: 275.7 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 7.8 RM mil+8ServicesBenchmark growth: 2020.5 RM milIndustry mix: 1442.5 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 699.4 RM mil+699AgricultureBenchmark growth: 70.3 RM milIndustry mix: -107.3 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 30.8 RM mil+31ConstructionBenchmark growth: 150.3 RM milIndustry mix: 136.7 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 317.4 RM mil+317ManufacturingBenchmark growth: 131.2 RM milIndustry mix: -100.6 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 49.3 RM mil+49
RM million, 2015 prices. Benchmark: Sabah (+14.1% over the window). The three effects add up exactly to the actual change. Source: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply; offshore oil & gas (Supra) excluded.
Benchmark growthIndustry mixCompetitive (own merit)

Diagnose · associated factors

Above or below what its structure predicts?

A model trained on all Malaysian districts estimates what a district with this structure would typically record. The gap and the factors behind the estimate are associations, not causes.

Median household income, 2024

Actual RM 5,896 vs expected RM 7,797: worse than structure predicts

Agriculture share of GDP+14.8%Population density+13.2%Labour force participation+12.5%GDP per capita (2020)+8.0%Unemployment rate-2.8%Piped-water access+1.7%
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (ridge regression, exact linear contributions). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±RM 649.

Absolute poverty rate, 2024

Actual 12.0% vs expected 8.3%: within model error

Unemployment rate+5.5 ppServices share of GDP-1.7 ppGDP per capita (2020)-1.3 ppAgriculture share of GDP-1.2 ppLabour force participation-1.0 ppShare aged 65+-0.9 pp
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (LightGBM, SHAP values). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±4.1%.

Compare

Structural peers

The five districts nationally most similar in economic structure (income level, GDP per capita, sector mix, density, age, labour participation, water access), whatever their state.
  1. 1KuchingSarawakMetropolitan & industrial core
  2. 2MiriSarawakServices-led towns & suburbs
  3. 3PenampangSabahServices-led towns & suburbs
  4. 4MuarJohorMetropolitan & industrial core
  5. 5SepangSelangorMetropolitan & industrial core

Positive deviance

Among its ten nearest structural neighbours, Ulu Langat (Selangor) improved fastest since 2019: welfare momentum +6.5 vs −1.3 here (income growth %/yr minus poverty change pp/yr).

Where it differs most:

  • manufacturing share: higher (2.18 → 5.78, √share)
  • mining share: lower (1.78 → 0.81, √share)
  • services share: lower (9.15 → 7.68, √share)

A lead to investigate, not a prescription.

Lights

Kota Kinabalu after dark

NASA's Black Marble satellite pictures of the district at night, 2012 against 2025: +21% over 13 years. Lights track where people, roads and industry are; they are a proxy, not a measure of output. Play every year on the map.
20122,205 · 1st of 27
20252,661 · 1st of 27

Data

Every indicator, with its source

IndicatorLatestYearTrendSabah rankSource
Mean household consumption expenditureRM / monthRM 4,72620241/28 (desc.)hies_district
Gini coefficient of household incomeindex (0–1)0.426202425/28hh_inequality_district
Mean household incomeRM / monthRM 8,71520241/28hh_income_district
Median household incomeRM / monthRM 5,89620243/28hh_income_district
Absolute poverty rate% of households12.0%20244/28hh_poverty_district
Relative poverty rate% of households7.7%20244/28hh_poverty_district
Employment-to-population ratio% of working-age71.7%20241/27lfs_district
Labour forcethousand persons292.020241/27 (desc.)lfs_district
Labour force participation rate% of working-age76.2%20241/27lfs_district
Unemployment rate% of labour force5.9%20242/27lfs_district
Households with electricity% of households100.0%20241/26hh_access_amenities
Households with piped water% of households96.2%20246/27hh_access_amenities
Households with improved sanitation% of households99.0%202421/27hh_access_amenities
GDP per capitaRM / person / yearRM 39,9012020single year1/27Derived
GDP at constant 2015 pricesRM million19,966.520201/27 (desc.)gdp_district_real_supply
Agriculture share of GDP% of GDP2.5%202025/27 (desc.)Derived
Construction share of GDP% of GDP5.4%20203/27 (desc.)Derived
Manufacturing share of GDP% of GDP4.7%202013/27 (desc.)Derived
Mining & quarrying share of GDP% of GDP3.2%20202/27 (desc.)Derived
Services share of GDP% of GDP83.6%20203/27 (desc.)Derived
Population densitypersons / km²1,60020252/27 (desc.)Derived
Populationthousand persons552.420251/27 (desc.)population_district
Population aged 65 and over% of population7.6%20252/27 (desc.)population_district
Non-citizen share of population% of population22.7%202511/27 (desc.)population_district
Real GDP growth, 2015–2020 average% / year2.8%2020single year6/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2020
Median income growth since 2019% / year−0.4%2024single year25/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2019–2024
Night-light growth, 2015 to latest year% / year1.2%2025single year22/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2025
Population growth, 2020–latest% / year2.0%2025single year8/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ Growth window 2020–2025
Share of land that is lit at night% of land area82.7%20252/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Average night-time light radiancenW·cm⁻²·sr⁻¹8.7920252/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Total night-time light (gap-filled)radiance × km² (index)2,66120251/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002

Advise

AI Analyst brief

AI-generated · unreviewed draft

Situation

Kota Kinabalu is classified as a metropolitan & industrial core by the atlas and is the largest district in Sabah by population and GDP size (2020) . Its median household income in 2024 was RM 5,896, which ranks 3rd in Sabah, but median income has fallen since 2019 and the district underperforms its structural peers on income growth . Real GDP was RM 19,966 (2015 prices) in 2020 and model nowcasts project continued growth through 2025–2027 with wide 80% intervals for the gdp estimates . The scorecard flags a mix of strengths (high labour-force participation) and concerns (rising absolute poverty and high unemployment relative to peers) for Kota Kinabalu .

Read the full brief with sources · Ask a follow-up