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SabahKu

Keningau

Typology: Services-led towns & suburbs · Structural peers: Sipitang, Papar, Sik (Kedah) · Latest survey 2024 · district GDP 2020

WELFAREIncome: 67th percentile in Sabah (2024)IncomePoverty: 78th percentile in Sabah (2024)PovertyGini: 67th percentile in Sabah (2024)GiniGDP/cap: 54th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDP/capSTRUCTUREServices: 73th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveServicesAgri: 35th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveAgriMfg: 69th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveMfgDensity: 54th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveDensityMOMENTUMInc. growth: 46th percentile in Sabah (2024)Inc.growthGDP growth: 46th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDPgrowthLFPR: 73th percentile in Sabah (2024)LFPRJobless: 52th percentile in Sabah (2024)JoblessACCESSWater: 50th percentile in Sabah (2024)WaterPower: 20th percentile in Sabah (2024)PowerLIGHTSRadiance: 62th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveRadianceLit area: 58th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveLit areaLights growth: 46th percentile in Sabah (2025)Lightsgrowth
worse ← percentile in Sabah → betterstructure: lower → higher (not good/bad) boundary change
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Median household income

RM 4,801

≈ in line with peers (RM 4,606)

10th of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

Absolute poverty rate

12.8%

≈ in line with peers (12.0%)

7th of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

GDP per capita

RM 9,631

≈ in line with peers (RM 9,288)

13th of 27 in Sabah

Derived · 2020

Unemployment rate

8.7%

≈ in line with peers (8.3%)

12th of 27 in Sabah

DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

Diagnose

What's working, what's holding it back

Rule-based, not a black box: a strength is above its structural peers and not worsening; a concern is below peers and not improving. Thresholds are published.

What's working

No indicator is clearly above peers and holding steady.

What's holding it back

No indicator is clearly below peers without improving.

Mixed signals

  • Piped water of 86.3% (2024) is 11.4 pp below its structural peers (97.7%), improving since 2022.

    DOSM · hh_access_amenities · 2024

Project

Where the economy is heading

DOSM last published district GDP for 2020. Values after that are nowcasts built from Sabah's published sector growth, then projections to 2028. Shaded bands are 80% intervals calibrated on backtests; see the model card.
Real GDP, RM million (2015 prices)
1,4001,6001,8002,0002,2002,4002,6002016201820202022202420262028OFFICIALNOWCASTPROJECTION1,966
Official: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply (to 2020). Nowcast & projection: model forecast-2026.09.26-74e1d087. Backtest error at 3 years: 0.2% for this district.
Median household income, RM / month (nominal)
RM 4,000RM 4,500RM 5,000RM 5,500RM 6,000201920222024202520262027OFFICIALPROJECTIONRM 5,165
Official: DOSM hh_income_district (2019, 2022, 2024). Projection follows Sabah's long-run trend.

Diagnose · why

Luck of the sector mix, or its own merit?

Shift-share splits GDP growth into what Sabah (or Malaysia) grew anyway, what the district's sector mix added, and a competitive effect: how its sectors did against the same sectors elsewhere, the most honest answer to “is it doing well on its own merits?”
Why did Keningau's GDP change, 2015–2019?
All sectorsBenchmark growth: 198.1 RM milIndustry mix: -14.3 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -93.9 RM mil−6.7% ownMining & quarryingBenchmark growth: 0.0 RM milIndustry mix: 0.0 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 0.0 RM mil±0ServicesBenchmark growth: 115.7 RM milIndustry mix: 82.6 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -54.9 RM mil−55AgricultureBenchmark growth: 60.0 RM milIndustry mix: -91.5 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -23.9 RM mil−24ConstructionBenchmark growth: 7.1 RM milIndustry mix: 6.4 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -15.0 RM mil−15ManufacturingBenchmark growth: 15.4 RM milIndustry mix: -11.8 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -0.1 RM mil−0
RM million, 2015 prices. Benchmark: Sabah (+14.1% over the window). The three effects add up exactly to the actual change. Source: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply; offshore oil & gas (Supra) excluded.
Benchmark growthIndustry mixCompetitive (own merit)

DOSM suppresses sector values below RM5 mil (mining 2015, mining 2016, mining 2017…); treated as zero.

Diagnose · associated factors

Above or below what its structure predicts?

A model trained on all Malaysian districts estimates what a district with this structure would typically record. The gap and the factors behind the estimate are associations, not causes.

Median household income, 2024

Actual RM 4,801 vs expected RM 4,522: within model error

GDP per capita (2020)-7.0%Unemployment rate-6.9%Labour force participation+7.1%Population density-2.6%Share aged 65++1.2%Agriculture share of GDP+0.7%
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (ridge regression, exact linear contributions). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±RM 649.

Absolute poverty rate, 2024

Actual 12.8% vs expected 24.2%: better than structure predicts

Unemployment rate+5.7 ppPiped-water access+2.3 ppServices share of GDP-2.1 ppLabour force participation-1.2 ppElectricity access+1.0 ppAgriculture share of GDP-0.9 pp
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (LightGBM, SHAP values). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±4.1%.

Compare

Structural peers

The five districts nationally most similar in economic structure (income level, GDP per capita, sector mix, density, age, labour participation, water access), whatever their state.
  1. 1SipitangSabahServices-led towns & suburbs
  2. 2PaparSabahServices-led towns & suburbs
  3. 3SikKedahServices-led towns & suburbs
  4. 4SetiuTerengganuServices-led towns & suburbs
  5. 5KunakSabahPlantation & agrarian frontier

Positive deviance

Among its ten nearest structural neighbours, Sabak Bernam (Selangor) improved fastest since 2019: welfare momentum +9.7 vs +4.1 here (income growth %/yr minus poverty change pp/yr).

Where it differs most:

  • GDP per capita: higher (9.17 → 9.95, log)
  • piped-water access: higher (86.26 → 100.00)
  • agriculture share: higher (4.85 → 6.38, √share)

A lead to investigate, not a prescription.

Lights

Keningau after dark

NASA's Black Marble satellite pictures of the district at night, 2012 against 2025: +69% over 13 years. Lights track where people, roads and industry are; they are a proxy, not a measure of output. Play every year on the map.
2012391 · 6th of 27
2025661 · 8th of 27

Data

Every indicator, with its source

IndicatorLatestYearTrendSabah rankSource
Mean household consumption expenditureRM / monthRM 3,54220249/28 (desc.)hies_district
Gini coefficient of household incomeindex (0–1)0.322202410/28hh_inequality_district
Mean household incomeRM / monthRM 6,03320249/28hh_income_district
Median household incomeRM / monthRM 4,801202410/28hh_income_district
Absolute poverty rate% of households12.8%20247/28hh_poverty_district
Relative poverty rate% of households11.5%20248/28hh_poverty_district
Employment-to-population ratio% of working-age65.4%20249/27lfs_district
Labour forcethousand persons75.920248/27 (desc.)lfs_district
Labour force participation rate% of working-age71.7%20248/27lfs_district
Unemployment rate% of labour force8.7%202412/27lfs_district
Households with electricity% of households99.3%202421/26hh_access_amenities
Households with piped water% of households86.3%202414/27hh_access_amenities
Households with improved sanitation% of households99.7%202417/27hh_access_amenities
GDP per capitaRM / person / yearRM 9,6312020single year13/27Derived
GDP at constant 2015 pricesRM million1,453.320209/27 (desc.)gdp_district_real_supply
Agriculture share of GDP% of GDP23.5%202018/27 (desc.)Derived
Construction share of GDP% of GDP4.2%20207/27 (desc.)Derived
Manufacturing share of GDP% of GDP7.3%20209/27 (desc.)Derived
Mining & quarrying share of GDP% of GDP0.0%202013/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ DOSM suppresses values below RM5 mil, shown as 0
Services share of GDP% of GDP64.3%20208/27 (desc.)Derived
Population densitypersons / km²43202513/27 (desc.)Derived
Populationthousand persons157.820258/27 (desc.)population_district
Population aged 65 and over% of population7.0%20255/27 (desc.)population_district
Non-citizen share of population% of population10.6%202515/27 (desc.)population_district
Real GDP growth, 2015–2020 average% / year0.5%2020single year15/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2020
Median income growth since 2019% / year3.2%2024single year15/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2019–2024
Night-light growth, 2015 to latest year% / year3.0%2025single year15/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2025
Population growth, 2020–latest% / year0.9%2025single year21/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ Growth window 2020–2025
Share of land that is lit at night% of land area8.6%202512/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Average night-time light radiancenW·cm⁻²·sr⁻¹0.18202511/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Total night-time light (gap-filled)radiance × km² (index)66120258/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002

Advise

AI Analyst brief

AI-generated · unreviewed draft

Situation

Keningau is classified as "Services-led towns & suburbs" in the atlas .

Median household income was RM 4,097 in 2019 and RM 4,801 in 2024 .

Median income growth since 2019 is 3.2% as reported by the atlas .

Official real GDP is published to 2020 at RM 1,453 (2015 prices) and model nowcasts project a 2025 p50 of RM 1,739 (80% interval RM 1,636–2,071 million) and a 2026 p50 of RM 1,811 (80% interval RM 1,680–2,199 million) (both modelled) .

Read the full brief with sources · Ask a follow-up