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SabahKu

Papar

Typology: Services-led towns & suburbs · Structural peers: Keningau, Tawau, Setiu (Terengganu) · Latest survey 2024 · district GDP 2020

WELFAREIncome: 81th percentile in Sabah (2024)IncomePoverty: 87th percentile in Sabah (2024)PovertyGini: 78th percentile in Sabah (2024)GiniGDP/cap: 38th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDP/capSTRUCTUREServices: 88th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveServicesAgri: 12th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveAgriMfg: 42th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveMfgDensity: 73th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveDensityMOMENTUMInc. growth: 23th percentile in Sabah (2024)Inc.growthGDP growth: 92th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDPgrowthLFPR: 81th percentile in Sabah (2024)LFPRJobless: 73th percentile in Sabah (2024)JoblessACCESSWater: 88th percentile in Sabah (2024)WaterPower: 64th percentile in Sabah (2024)PowerLIGHTSRadiance: 77th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveRadianceLit area: 85th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveLit areaLights growth: 58th percentile in Sabah (2025)Lightsgrowth
worse ← percentile in Sabah → betterstructure: lower → higher (not good/bad) boundary change
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Median household income

RM 5,177

▲ better than peers (RM 4,801)

6th of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

Absolute poverty rate

12.0%

▲ better than peers (13.2%)

4th of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

GDP per capita

RM 9,271

▼ worse than peers (RM 13,400)

17th of 27 in Sabah

Derived · 2020

Unemployment rate

8.3%

≈ in line with peers (8.7%)

8th of 27 in Sabah

DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

Diagnose

What's working, what's holding it back

Rule-based, not a black box: a strength is above its structural peers and not worsening; a concern is below peers and not improving. Thresholds are published.

What's working

  • +Median income of RM 5,177 (2024) is 8% above its structural peers (RM 4,801), growing roughly in step with Sabah (2022–2024).Strength

    DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

  • +GDP growth of 3.6% (2020) is 2.9 pp/yr above its structural peers (0.7%).Strength

    Derived · 2020

  • +Participation of 72.5% (2024) is 1.3 pp above its structural peers (71.2%), improving since 2023.Strength

    DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

  • +Poverty of 12.0% (2024) is 1.2 pp below its structural peers (13.2%), improving since 2022.Strength

    DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

What's holding it back

  • −GDP / capita of RM 9,271 (2020) is 31% below its structural peers (RM 13,400).Concern

    Derived · 2020

  • −Income growth of 2.5% (2024) is 0.7 pp/yr below its structural peers (3.2%).Concern

    Derived · 2024

Mixed signals

  • Piped water of 97.7% (2024) is 1.5 pp below its structural peers (99.2%), improving since 2022.

    DOSM · hh_access_amenities · 2024

Project

Where the economy is heading

DOSM last published district GDP for 2020. Values after that are nowcasts built from Sabah's published sector growth, then projections to 2028. Shaded bands are 80% intervals calibrated on backtests; see the model card.
Real GDP, RM million (2015 prices)
1,0001,5002,0002,5002016201820202022202420262028OFFICIALNOWCASTPROJECTION2,033
Official: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply (to 2020). Nowcast & projection: model forecast-2026.09.26-74e1d087. Backtest error at 3 years: 1.8% for this district.
Median household income, RM / month (nominal)
RM 4,500RM 5,000RM 5,500RM 6,000RM 6,500201920222024202520262027OFFICIALPROJECTIONRM 5,570
Official: DOSM hh_income_district (2019, 2022, 2024). Projection follows Sabah's long-run trend.

Diagnose · why

Luck of the sector mix, or its own merit?

Shift-share splits GDP growth into what Sabah (or Malaysia) grew anyway, what the district's sector mix added, and a competitive effect: how its sectors did against the same sectors elsewhere, the most honest answer to “is it doing well on its own merits?”
Why did Papar's GDP change, 2015–2019?
All sectorsBenchmark growth: 164.6 RM milIndustry mix: 50.0 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 81.5 RM mil+7.0% ownMining & quarryingBenchmark growth: 0.0 RM milIndustry mix: 0.0 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 0.0 RM mil±0ServicesBenchmark growth: 123.0 RM milIndustry mix: 87.8 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 28.4 RM mil+28AgricultureBenchmark growth: 25.9 RM milIndustry mix: -39.6 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 43.2 RM mil+43ConstructionBenchmark growth: 8.3 RM milIndustry mix: 7.5 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 9.0 RM mil+9ManufacturingBenchmark growth: 7.5 RM milIndustry mix: -5.7 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 0.9 RM mil+1
RM million, 2015 prices. Benchmark: Sabah (+14.1% over the window). The three effects add up exactly to the actual change. Source: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply; offshore oil & gas (Supra) excluded.
Benchmark growthIndustry mixCompetitive (own merit)

DOSM suppresses sector values below RM5 mil (mining 2015, mining 2016, mining 2017…); treated as zero.

Diagnose · associated factors

Above or below what its structure predicts?

A model trained on all Malaysian districts estimates what a district with this structure would typically record. The gap and the factors behind the estimate are associations, not causes.

Median household income, 2024

Actual RM 5,177 vs expected RM 5,326: within model error

Labour force participation+8.0%GDP per capita (2020)-7.3%Unemployment rate-6.3%Share aged 65++6.4%Agriculture share of GDP+4.6%Piped-water access+2.0%
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (ridge regression, exact linear contributions). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±RM 649.

Absolute poverty rate, 2024

Actual 12.0% vs expected 11.1%: within model error

Unemployment rate+5.8 ppPiped-water access-2.7 ppServices share of GDP-2.7 ppGDP per capita (2020)+2.1 ppAgriculture share of GDP-0.9 ppLabour force participation-0.8 pp
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (LightGBM, SHAP values). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±4.1%.

Compare

Structural peers

The five districts nationally most similar in economic structure (income level, GDP per capita, sector mix, density, age, labour participation, water access), whatever their state.
  1. 1KeningauSabahServices-led towns & suburbs
  2. 2TawauSabahServices-led towns & suburbs
  3. 3SetiuTerengganuServices-led towns & suburbs
  4. 4SipitangSabahServices-led towns & suburbs
  5. 5Kuala PenyuSabahServices-led towns & suburbs

Positive deviance

Among its ten nearest structural neighbours, Setiu (Terengganu) improved fastest since 2019: welfare momentum +8.0 vs +2.7 here (income growth %/yr minus poverty change pp/yr).

Where it differs most:

  • labour force participation: lower (72.50 → 64.70)
  • agriculture share: higher (3.91 → 6.04, √share)
  • services share: lower (8.75 → 7.61, √share)

A lead to investigate, not a prescription.

Lights

Papar after dark

NASA's Black Marble satellite pictures of the district at night, 2012 against 2025: +183% over 13 years. Lights track where people, roads and industry are; they are a proxy, not a measure of output. Play every year on the map.
2012242 · 8th of 27
2025684 · 6th of 27

Data

Every indicator, with its source

IndicatorLatestYearTrendSabah rankSource
Mean household consumption expenditureRM / monthRM 3,61320245/28 (desc.)hies_district
Gini coefficient of household incomeindex (0–1)0.31320247/28hh_inequality_district
Mean household incomeRM / monthRM 6,03820248/28hh_income_district
Median household incomeRM / monthRM 5,17720246/28hh_income_district
Absolute poverty rate% of households12.0%20244/28hh_poverty_district
Relative poverty rate% of households9.0%20245/28hh_poverty_district
Employment-to-population ratio% of working-age66.5%20247/27lfs_district
Labour forcethousand persons74.220249/27 (desc.)lfs_district
Labour force participation rate% of working-age72.5%20246/27lfs_district
Unemployment rate% of labour force8.3%20248/27lfs_district
Households with electricity% of households100.0%20241/26hh_access_amenities
Households with piped water% of households97.7%20244/27hh_access_amenities
Households with improved sanitation% of households100.0%20241/27hh_access_amenities
GDP per capitaRM / person / yearRM 9,2712020single year17/27Derived
GDP at constant 2015 pricesRM million1,397.1202010/27 (desc.)gdp_district_real_supply
Agriculture share of GDP% of GDP15.3%202024/27 (desc.)Derived
Construction share of GDP% of GDP4.0%20209/27 (desc.)Derived
Manufacturing share of GDP% of GDP3.7%202016/27 (desc.)Derived
Mining & quarrying share of GDP% of GDP0.0%202013/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ DOSM suppresses values below RM5 mil, shown as 0
Services share of GDP% of GDP76.5%20204/27 (desc.)Derived
Population densitypersons / km²12120258/27 (desc.)Derived
Populationthousand persons156.320259/27 (desc.)population_district
Population aged 65 and over% of population5.1%202522/27 (desc.)population_district
Non-citizen share of population% of population7.7%202516/27 (desc.)population_district
Real GDP growth, 2015–2020 average% / year3.6%2020single year3/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2020
Median income growth since 2019% / year2.5%2024single year21/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2019–2024
Night-light growth, 2015 to latest year% / year4.4%2025single year12/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2025
Population growth, 2020–latest% / year0.7%2025single year23/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ Growth window 2020–2025
Share of land that is lit at night% of land area25.1%20255/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Average night-time light radiancenW·cm⁻²·sr⁻¹0.5420257/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Total night-time light (gap-filled)radiance × km² (index)68420256/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002

Advise

AI Analyst brief

AI-generated · unreviewed draft

Situation

Papar is classified as a "Services-led towns & suburbs" district in Sabah's atlas typology .

Median household income was RM 5,177 in 2024 and ranks 6 of 28 in Sabah, showing a higher-than-peer income level but modest growth since 2019 .

Real GDP was RM 1,397 (2015 prices) in 2020 and the district registers above-peer historical GDP growth for 2015–2020, with modelled nowcasts and projections showing a rising central estimate to p50 RM 1,755 (80% interval RM 1,651–2,090 million) in 2025 and RM 1,843 (80% interval RM 1,710–2,238 million) in 2026 (80% intervals supplied) — these post-2020 values are modelled nowcasts/projections, not official DOSM releases .

Labour-force participation is relatively high at 72.5% in 2024 while unemployment has risen to 8.3% in 2024, indicating tight labour-market engagement but elevated joblessness compared with its own past .

Read the full brief with sources · Ask a follow-up