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SabahKu

Kuala Penyu

Typology: Services-led towns & suburbs · Structural peers: Sik (Kedah), Maradong (Sarawak), Beaufort · Latest survey 2024 · district GDP 2020

WELFAREIncome: 26th percentile in Sabah (2024)IncomePoverty: 67th percentile in Sabah (2024)PovertyGini: 33th percentile in Sabah (2024)GiniGDP/cap: 12th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDP/capSTRUCTUREServices: 77th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveServicesAgri: 54th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveAgriMfg: 6th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveMfgDensity: 62th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveDensityMOMENTUMInc. growth: 73th percentile in Sabah (2024)Inc.growthGDP growth: 73th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDPgrowthLFPR: 35th percentile in Sabah (2024)LFPRJobless: 37th percentile in Sabah (2024)JoblessACCESSWater: 100th percentile in Sabah (2024)WaterPower: 64th percentile in Sabah (2024)PowerLIGHTSRadiance: 65th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveRadianceLit area: 77th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveLit areaLights growth: 62th percentile in Sabah (2025)Lightsgrowth
worse ← percentile in Sabah → betterstructure: lower → higher (not good/bad) boundary change
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Median household income

RM 3,733

▼ worse than peers (RM 4,438)

21st of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

Absolute poverty rate

14.3%

▼ worse than peers (12.8%)

10th of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

GDP per capita

RM 6,567

▼ worse than peers (RM 9,631)

24th of 27 in Sabah

Derived · 2020

Unemployment rate

9.0%

▼ worse than peers (5.1%)

17th of 27 in Sabah

DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

Diagnose

What's working, what's holding it back

Rule-based, not a black box: a strength is above its structural peers and not worsening; a concern is below peers and not improving. Thresholds are published.

What's working

  • +Piped water of 100.0% (2024) is 3.7 pp above its structural peers (96.3%), improving since 2022.Strength

    DOSM · hh_access_amenities · 2024

  • +Participation of 67.7% (2024) is 2.3 pp above its structural peers (65.4%), improving since 2023.Strength

    DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

  • +Income growth of 4.8% (2024) is 2.0 pp/yr above its structural peers (2.8%).Strength

    Derived · 2024

  • +GDP growth of 1.9% (2020) is 0.9 pp/yr above its structural peers (0.9%).Strength

    Derived · 2020

What's holding it back

  • −GDP / capita of RM 6,567 (2020) is 32% below its structural peers (RM 9,631).Concern

    Derived · 2020

  • −Median income of RM 3,733 (2024) is 16% below its structural peers (RM 4,438), growing roughly in step with Sabah (2022–2024).Concern

    DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

  • −Unemployment of 9.0% (2024) is 3.9 pp above its structural peers (5.1%), broadly unchanged 2023–2024.Concern

    DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

  • −Gini of 0.375 (2024) is 0.053 above its structural peers (0.322), worsening since 2022.Concern

    DOSM · hh_inequality_district · 2024

Mixed signals

  • Poverty of 14.3% (2024) is 1.5 pp above its structural peers (12.8%), improving since 2022.

    DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

Project

Where the economy is heading

DOSM last published district GDP for 2020. Values after that are nowcasts built from Sabah's published sector growth, then projections to 2028. Shaded bands are 80% intervals calibrated on backtests; see the model card.
Real GDP, RM million (2015 prices)
1502002502016201820202022202420262028OFFICIALNOWCASTPROJECTION206
Official: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply (to 2020). Nowcast & projection: model forecast-2026.09.26-74e1d087. Backtest error at 3 years: 0.4% for this district.
Median household income, RM / month (nominal)
RM 3,000RM 3,500RM 4,000RM 4,500201920222024202520262027OFFICIALPROJECTIONRM 4,016
Official: DOSM hh_income_district (2019, 2022, 2024). Projection follows Sabah's long-run trend.

Diagnose · why

Luck of the sector mix, or its own merit?

Shift-share splits GDP growth into what Sabah (or Malaysia) grew anyway, what the district's sector mix added, and a competitive effect: how its sectors did against the same sectors elsewhere, the most honest answer to “is it doing well on its own merits?”
Why did Kuala Penyu's GDP change, 2015–2019?
All sectorsBenchmark growth: 19.2 RM milIndustry mix: -0.5 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 5.5 RM mil+4.0% ownMining & quarryingBenchmark growth: 0.0 RM milIndustry mix: 0.0 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 0.0 RM mil±0ServicesBenchmark growth: 12.9 RM milIndustry mix: 9.2 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -6.2 RM mil−6AgricultureBenchmark growth: 6.4 RM milIndustry mix: -9.7 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 5.9 RM mil+6ConstructionBenchmark growth: 0.0 RM milIndustry mix: 0.0 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 5.7 RM mil+6ManufacturingBenchmark growth: 0.0 RM milIndustry mix: 0.0 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 0.0 RM mil±0
RM million, 2015 prices. Benchmark: Sabah (+14.1% over the window). The three effects add up exactly to the actual change. Source: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply; offshore oil & gas (Supra) excluded.
Benchmark growthIndustry mixCompetitive (own merit)

DOSM suppresses sector values below RM5 mil (construction 2015, construction 2016, construction 2017…); treated as zero.

Diagnose · associated factors

Above or below what its structure predicts?

A model trained on all Malaysian districts estimates what a district with this structure would typically record. The gap and the factors behind the estimate are associations, not causes.

Median household income, 2024

Actual RM 3,733 vs expected RM 4,501: worse than structure predicts

GDP per capita (2020)-10.6%Unemployment rate-7.3%Share aged 65++7.8%Piped-water access+2.6%Labour force participation+2.5%Agriculture share of GDP-1.9%
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (ridge regression, exact linear contributions). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±RM 649.

Absolute poverty rate, 2024

Actual 14.3% vs expected 17.6%: within model error

Unemployment rate+5.8 ppGDP per capita (2020)+4.2 ppPiped-water access-2.9 ppServices share of GDP-1.8 ppLabour force participation-0.9 ppAgriculture share of GDP+0.7 pp
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (LightGBM, SHAP values). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±4.1%.

Compare

Structural peers

The five districts nationally most similar in economic structure (income level, GDP per capita, sector mix, density, age, labour participation, water access), whatever their state.
  1. 1SikKedahServices-led towns & suburbs
  2. 2MaradongSarawakAgeing agricultural heartland
  3. 3BeaufortSabahServices-led towns & suburbs
  4. 4SetiuTerengganuServices-led towns & suburbs
  5. 5KeningauSabahServices-led towns & suburbs

Positive deviance

Among its ten nearest structural neighbours, Pakan (Sarawak) improved fastest since 2019: welfare momentum +8.7 vs +7.9 here (income growth %/yr minus poverty change pp/yr).

Where it differs most:

  • share aged 65+: higher (5.49 → 8.39, √share)
  • population density: lower (4.10 → 2.73, log)
  • agriculture share: lower (5.49 → 3.77, √share)

A lead to investigate, not a prescription.

Lights

Kuala Penyu after dark

NASA's Black Marble satellite pictures of the district at night, 2012 against 2025: +60% over 13 years. Lights track where people, roads and industry are; they are a proxy, not a measure of output. Play every year on the map.
201232 · 22nd of 27
202551 · 23rd of 27

Data

Every indicator, with its source

IndicatorLatestYearTrendSabah rankSource
Mean household consumption expenditureRM / monthRM 2,826202421/28 (desc.)hies_district
Gini coefficient of household incomeindex (0–1)0.375202419/28hh_inequality_district
Mean household incomeRM / monthRM 4,750202424/28hh_income_district
Median household incomeRM / monthRM 3,733202421/28hh_income_district
Absolute poverty rate% of households14.3%202410/28hh_poverty_district
Relative poverty rate% of households30.4%202424/28hh_poverty_district
Employment-to-population ratio% of working-age61.9%202417/27lfs_district
Labour forcethousand persons11.4202427/27 (desc.)lfs_district
Labour force participation rate% of working-age67.7%202418/27lfs_district
Unemployment rate% of labour force9.0%202417/27lfs_district
Households with electricity% of households100.0%20241/26hh_access_amenities
Households with piped water% of households100.0%20241/27hh_access_amenities
Households with improved sanitation% of households100.0%20241/27hh_access_amenities
GDP per capitaRM / person / yearRM 6,5672020single year24/27Derived
GDP at constant 2015 pricesRM million155.6202026/27 (desc.)gdp_district_real_supply
Agriculture share of GDP% of GDP30.2%202013/27 (desc.)Derived
Construction share of GDP% of GDP0.0%202021/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ DOSM suppresses values below RM5 mil, shown as 0
Manufacturing share of GDP% of GDP0.0%202024/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ DOSM suppresses values below RM5 mil, shown as 0
Mining & quarrying share of GDP% of GDP0.0%202013/27 (desc.)Derived
Services share of GDP% of GDP66.0%20207/27 (desc.)Derived
Population densitypersons / km²64202511/27 (desc.)Derived
Populationthousand persons24.9202527/27 (desc.)population_district
Population aged 65 and over% of population4.8%202524/27 (desc.)population_district
Non-citizen share of population% of population7.2%202518/27 (desc.)population_district
Real GDP growth, 2015–2020 average% / year1.9%2020single year8/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2020
Median income growth since 2019% / year4.8%2024single year8/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2019–2024
Night-light growth, 2015 to latest year% / year4.5%2025single year11/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2025
Population growth, 2020–latest% / year1.0%2025single year18/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ Growth window 2020–2025
Share of land that is lit at night% of land area17.7%20257/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Average night-time light radiancenW·cm⁻²·sr⁻¹0.18202510/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Total night-time light (gap-filled)radiance × km² (index)51202523/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002

Advise

AI Analyst brief

AI-generated · unreviewed draft

Situation

Kuala Penyu is classified as a "Services-led towns & suburbs" district in the atlas typology .

Median household income was RM 3,733 in 2024 and has risen from RM 2,949 in 2019, showing positive welfare momentum since 2019 .

The district's real GDP was RM 156 million in 2020 and model nowcasts project growth to a p50 RM 183 million in 2025 with an 80% interval RM 173–RM 218 .

Official labour market indicators show rising unemployment to 9.0% in 2024 after lower rates earlier in the decade .

Read the full brief with sources · Ask a follow-up