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SabahKu

Ranau

Typology: Remote interior, low service access · Structural peers: Telang Usan (Sarawak), Tenom, Selangau (Sarawak) · Latest survey 2024 · district GDP 2020

WELFAREIncome: 17th percentile in Sabah (2024)IncomePoverty: 48th percentile in Sabah (2024)PovertyGini: 7th percentile in Sabah (2024)GiniGDP/cap: 31th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDP/capSTRUCTUREServices: 58th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveServicesAgri: 65th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveAgriMfg: 6th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveMfgDensity: 27th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveDensityMOMENTUMInc. growth: 4th percentile in Sabah (2024)Inc.growthGDP growth: 77th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDPgrowthLFPR: 54th percentile in Sabah (2024)LFPRJobless: 25th percentile in Sabah (2024)JoblessACCESSWater: 0th percentile in Sabah (2024)WaterPower: 12th percentile in Sabah (2024)PowerLIGHTSRadiance: 27th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveRadianceLit area: 27th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveLit areaLights growth: 85th percentile in Sabah (2025)Lightsgrowth
worse ← percentile in Sabah → betterstructure: lower → higher (not good/bad) boundary change
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Median household income

RM 3,470

▼ worse than peers (RM 4,170)

23rd of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

Absolute poverty rate

23.5%

▼ worse than peers (12.1%)

15th of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

GDP per capita

RM 8,227

≈ in line with peers (RM 7,844)

19th of 27 in Sabah

Derived · 2020

Unemployment rate

9.3%

▼ worse than peers (4.6%)

20th of 27 in Sabah

DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

Diagnose

What's working, what's holding it back

Rule-based, not a black box: a strength is above its structural peers and not worsening; a concern is below peers and not improving. Thresholds are published.

What's working

  • +Participation of 70.2% (2024) is 2.4 pp above its structural peers (67.8%), improving since 2023.Strength

    DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

  • +GDP growth of 2.0% (2020) is 0.9 pp/yr above its structural peers (1.1%).Strength

    Derived · 2020

What's holding it back

  • −Median income of RM 3,470 (2024) is 17% below its structural peers (RM 4,170), growing 10.9 pp/yr slower than Sabah (2022–2024).Concern

    DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

  • −Piped water of 46.5% (2024) is 16.6 pp below its structural peers (63.1%), worsening since 2022.Concern

    DOSM · hh_access_amenities · 2024

  • −Income growth of −0.6% (2024) is 5.4 pp/yr below its structural peers (4.9%).Concern

    Derived · 2024

  • −Unemployment of 9.3% (2024) is 4.7 pp above its structural peers (4.6%), broadly unchanged 2023–2024.Concern

    DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

  • −Gini of 0.441 (2024) is 0.141 above its structural peers (0.300), worsening since 2022.Concern

    DOSM · hh_inequality_district · 2024

Mixed signals

  • Poverty of 23.5% (2024) is 11.4 pp above its structural peers (12.1%), improving since 2022.

    DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

  • Electricity of 95.9% (2024) is 4.1 pp below its structural peers (100.0%), improving since 2022.

    DOSM · hh_access_amenities · 2024

Project

Where the economy is heading

DOSM last published district GDP for 2020. Values after that are nowcasts built from Sabah's published sector growth, then projections to 2028. Shaded bands are 80% intervals calibrated on backtests; see the model card.
Real GDP, RM million (2015 prices)
6007008009001,0001,1001,2001,3002016201820202022202420262028OFFICIALNOWCASTPROJECTION967
Official: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply (to 2020). Nowcast & projection: model forecast-2026.09.26-74e1d087. Backtest error at 3 years: 9.2% for this district.
Median household income, RM / month (nominal)
RM 3,200RM 3,400RM 3,600RM 3,800RM 4,000RM 4,200RM 4,400201920222024202520262027OFFICIALPROJECTIONRM 3,733
Official: DOSM hh_income_district (2019, 2022, 2024). Projection follows Sabah's long-run trend.

Diagnose · why

Luck of the sector mix, or its own merit?

Shift-share splits GDP growth into what Sabah (or Malaysia) grew anyway, what the district's sector mix added, and a competitive effect: how its sectors did against the same sectors elsewhere, the most honest answer to “is it doing well on its own merits?”
Why did Ranau's GDP change, 2015–2019?
All sectorsBenchmark growth: 88.8 RM milIndustry mix: -22.5 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 53.0 RM mil+8.4% ownMining & quarryingBenchmark growth: 0.0 RM milIndustry mix: 0.0 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 0.0 RM mil±0ServicesBenchmark growth: 48.3 RM milIndustry mix: 34.4 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 40.9 RM mil+41AgricultureBenchmark growth: 38.5 RM milIndustry mix: -58.8 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 9.6 RM mil+10ConstructionBenchmark growth: 2.0 RM milIndustry mix: 1.9 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 2.5 RM mil+3ManufacturingBenchmark growth: 0.0 RM milIndustry mix: 0.0 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 0.0 RM mil±0
RM million, 2015 prices. Benchmark: Sabah (+14.1% over the window). The three effects add up exactly to the actual change. Source: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply; offshore oil & gas (Supra) excluded.
Benchmark growthIndustry mixCompetitive (own merit)

DOSM suppresses sector values below RM5 mil (manufacturing 2015, manufacturing 2016, manufacturing 2017…); treated as zero.

Diagnose · associated factors

Above or below what its structure predicts?

A model trained on all Malaysian districts estimates what a district with this structure would typically record. The gap and the factors behind the estimate are associations, not causes.

Median household income, 2024

Actual RM 3,470 vs expected RM 3,657: within model error

Piped-water access-8.7%GDP per capita (2020)-8.5%Unemployment rate-7.7%Population density-5.1%Labour force participation+5.3%Agriculture share of GDP-3.4%
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (ridge regression, exact linear contributions). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±RM 649.

Absolute poverty rate, 2024

Actual 23.5% vs expected 22.0%: within model error

Unemployment rate+8.2 ppPiped-water access+5.2 ppGDP per capita (2020)+3.3 ppElectricity access+2.6 ppShare aged 65+-2.1 ppLabour force participation-1.8 pp
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (LightGBM, SHAP values). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±4.1%.

Compare

Structural peers

The five districts nationally most similar in economic structure (income level, GDP per capita, sector mix, density, age, labour participation, water access), whatever their state.
  1. 1Telang UsanSarawakRemote interior, low service access
  2. 2TenomSabahRemote interior, low service access
  3. 3SelangauSarawakRemote interior, low service access
  4. 4TambunanSabahRemote interior, low service access
  5. 5LawasSarawakRemote interior, low service access

Positive deviance

Among its ten nearest structural neighbours, Selangau (Sarawak) improved fastest since 2019: welfare momentum +8.7 vs +0.1 here (income growth %/yr minus poverty change pp/yr).

Where it differs most:

  • share aged 65+: higher (7.17 → 9.09, √share)
  • piped-water access: lower (46.48 → 31.31)
  • population density: lower (3.10 → 1.63, log)

A lead to investigate, not a prescription.

Lights

Ranau after dark

NASA's Black Marble satellite pictures of the district at night, 2012 against 2025: +118% over 13 years. Lights track where people, roads and industry are; they are a proxy, not a measure of output. Play every year on the map.
201293 · 14th of 27
2025203 · 14th of 27

Data

Every indicator, with its source

IndicatorLatestYearTrendSabah rankSource
Mean household consumption expenditureRM / monthRM 2,905202420/28 (desc.)hies_district
Gini coefficient of household incomeindex (0–1)0.441202426/28hh_inequality_district
Mean household incomeRM / monthRM 5,330202416/28hh_income_district
Median household incomeRM / monthRM 3,470202423/28hh_income_district
Absolute poverty rate% of households23.5%202415/28hh_poverty_district
Relative poverty rate% of households27.9%202422/28hh_poverty_district
Employment-to-population ratio% of working-age63.8%202413/27lfs_district
Labour forcethousand persons40.3202414/27 (desc.)lfs_district
Labour force participation rate% of working-age70.2%202413/27lfs_district
Unemployment rate% of labour force9.3%202420/27lfs_district
Households with electricity% of households95.9%202423/26hh_access_amenities
Households with piped water% of households46.5%202427/27hh_access_amenities
Households with improved sanitation% of households100.0%20241/27hh_access_amenities
GDP per capitaRM / person / yearRM 8,2272020single year19/27Derived
GDP at constant 2015 pricesRM million700.1202014/27 (desc.)gdp_district_real_supply
Agriculture share of GDP% of GDP34.6%202010/27 (desc.)Derived
Construction share of GDP% of GDP4.8%20206/27 (desc.)Derived
Manufacturing share of GDP% of GDP0.0%202024/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ DOSM suppresses values below RM5 mil, shown as 0
Mining & quarrying share of GDP% of GDP0.0%202013/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ DOSM suppresses values below RM5 mil, shown as 0
Services share of GDP% of GDP60.0%202012/27 (desc.)Derived
Population densitypersons / km²23202520/27 (desc.)Derived
Populationthousand persons89.1202514/27 (desc.)population_district
Population aged 65 and over% of population7.4%20254/27 (desc.)population_district
Non-citizen share of population% of population5.9%202522/27 (desc.)population_district
Real GDP growth, 2015–2020 average% / year2.0%2020single year7/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2020
Median income growth since 2019% / year−0.6%2024single year26/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2019–2024
Night-light growth, 2015 to latest year% / year5.7%2025single year5/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2025
Population growth, 2020–latest% / year0.9%2025single year20/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ Growth window 2020–2025
Share of land that is lit at night% of land area3.5%202520/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Average night-time light radiancenW·cm⁻²·sr⁻¹0.05202520/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Total night-time light (gap-filled)radiance × km² (index)203202514/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002

Advise

AI Analyst brief

AI-generated · unreviewed draft

Situation

Ranau is a remote-interior district with a large agriculture share and a mid-sized population for Sabah, and its median household income was RM 3,470 in 2024 .

Real GDP in 2020 was RM 700 (2015 prices) and Ranau's five-year real growth through 2020 averaged 2.0%, a rate above its structural peers .

Welfare momentum is weak: median income fell since 2019 and poverty remains elevated despite a modest improvement in absolute poverty between 2019 and 2024 .

Model projections nowcast district real GDP rising from a 2020 official base to a 2025 p50 of RM 849 (80% interval RM 798–RM 1,011) and project median income rising modestly to RM 3,643 in 2026 (80% interval RM 3,238–RM 4,112) .

Read the full brief with sources · Ask a follow-up