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SabahKu

Tambunan

Typology: Remote interior, low service access · Structural peers: Tenom, Pakan (Sarawak), Keningau · Latest survey 2024 · district GDP 2020

WELFAREIncome: 74th percentile in Sabah (2024)IncomePoverty: 93th percentile in Sabah (2024)PovertyGini: 89th percentile in Sabah (2024)GiniGDP/cap: 4th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDP/capSTRUCTUREServices: 81th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveServicesAgri: 38th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveAgriMfg: 6th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveMfgDensity: 35th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveDensityMOMENTUMInc. growth: 85th percentile in Sabah (2024)Inc.growthGDP growth: 62th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDPgrowthLFPR: 50th percentile in Sabah (2024)LFPRJobless: 37th percentile in Sabah (2024)JoblessACCESSWater: 23th percentile in Sabah (2024)WaterPower: 64th percentile in Sabah (2024)PowerLIGHTSRadiance: 31th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveRadianceLit area: 35th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveLit areaLights growth: 50th percentile in Sabah (2025)Lightsgrowth
worse ← percentile in Sabah → betterstructure: lower → higher (not good/bad) boundary change
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Median household income

RM 4,854

▲ better than peers (RM 3,929)

8th of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

Absolute poverty rate

8.3%

▲ better than peers (14.5%)

3rd of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

GDP per capita

RM 4,783

▼ worse than peers (RM 8,153)

26th of 27 in Sabah

Derived · 2020

Unemployment rate

9.0%

≈ in line with peers (8.7%)

17th of 27 in Sabah

DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

Diagnose

What's working, what's holding it back

Rule-based, not a black box: a strength is above its structural peers and not worsening; a concern is below peers and not improving. Thresholds are published.

What's working

  • +Median income of RM 4,854 (2024) is 24% above its structural peers (RM 3,929), growing 6.0 pp/yr faster than Sabah (2022–2024).Strength

    DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

  • +Poverty of 8.3% (2024) is 6.2 pp below its structural peers (14.5%), improving since 2022.Strength

    DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

  • +Participation of 70.0% (2024) is 5.4 pp above its structural peers (64.6%), improving since 2023.Strength

    DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

  • +Income growth of 6.3% (2024) is 2.9 pp/yr above its structural peers (3.4%).Strength

    Derived · 2024

  • +Gini of 0.300 (2024) is 0.036 below its structural peers (0.336), improving since 2022.Strength

    DOSM · hh_inequality_district · 2024

What's holding it back

  • −GDP / capita of RM 4,783 (2020) is 41% below its structural peers (RM 8,153).Concern

    Derived · 2020

  • −Piped water of 72.2% (2024) is 3.1 pp below its structural peers (75.3%), worsening since 2022.Concern

    DOSM · hh_access_amenities · 2024

  • −Sanitation of 98.6% (2024) is 1.4 pp below its structural peers (100.0%), worsening since 2022.Concern

    DOSM · hh_access_amenities · 2024

Project

Where the economy is heading

DOSM last published district GDP for 2020. Values after that are nowcasts built from Sabah's published sector growth, then projections to 2028. Shaded bands are 80% intervals calibrated on backtests; see the model card.
Real GDP, RM million (2015 prices)
1401601802002202402602016201820202022202420262028OFFICIALNOWCASTPROJECTION203
Official: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply (to 2020). Nowcast & projection: model forecast-2026.09.26-74e1d087. Backtest error at 3 years: 4.8% for this district.
Median household income, RM / month (nominal)
RM 3,500RM 4,000RM 4,500RM 5,000RM 5,500RM 6,000201920222024202520262027OFFICIALPROJECTIONRM 5,222
Official: DOSM hh_income_district (2019, 2022, 2024). Projection follows Sabah's long-run trend.

Diagnose · why

Luck of the sector mix, or its own merit?

Shift-share splits GDP growth into what Sabah (or Malaysia) grew anyway, what the district's sector mix added, and a competitive effect: how its sectors did against the same sectors elsewhere, the most honest answer to “is it doing well on its own merits?”
Why did Tambunan's GDP change, 2015–2019?
All sectorsBenchmark growth: 19.8 RM milIndustry mix: -1.9 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -6.0 RM mil−4.3% ownMining & quarryingBenchmark growth: 0.0 RM milIndustry mix: 0.0 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 0.0 RM mil±0ServicesBenchmark growth: 12.6 RM milIndustry mix: 9.0 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 4.0 RM mil+4AgricultureBenchmark growth: 7.2 RM milIndustry mix: -11.0 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -10.1 RM mil−10ConstructionBenchmark growth: 0.0 RM milIndustry mix: 0.0 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 0.0 RM mil±0ManufacturingBenchmark growth: 0.0 RM milIndustry mix: 0.0 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 0.0 RM mil±0
RM million, 2015 prices. Benchmark: Sabah (+14.1% over the window). The three effects add up exactly to the actual change. Source: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply; offshore oil & gas (Supra) excluded.
Benchmark growthIndustry mixCompetitive (own merit)

DOSM suppresses sector values below RM5 mil (construction 2015, construction 2016, construction 2017…); treated as zero.

Diagnose · associated factors

Above or below what its structure predicts?

A model trained on all Malaysian districts estimates what a district with this structure would typically record. The gap and the factors behind the estimate are associations, not causes.

Median household income, 2024

Actual RM 4,854 vs expected RM 3,843: better than structure predicts

GDP per capita (2020)-13.5%Unemployment rate-7.3%Labour force participation+5.1%Population density-4.7%Piped-water access-3.5%Manufacturing share of GDP+1.7%
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (ridge regression, exact linear contributions). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±RM 649.

Absolute poverty rate, 2024

Actual 8.3% vs expected 22.8%: better than structure predicts

Unemployment rate+4.9 ppServices share of GDP-3.9 ppGDP per capita (2020)+3.0 ppPiped-water access+2.3 ppShare aged 65+-1.9 ppLabour force participation-1.8 pp
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (LightGBM, SHAP values). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±4.1%.

Compare

Structural peers

The five districts nationally most similar in economic structure (income level, GDP per capita, sector mix, density, age, labour participation, water access), whatever their state.
  1. 1TenomSabahRemote interior, low service access
  2. 2PakanSarawakRemote interior, low service access
  3. 3KeningauSabahServices-led towns & suburbs
  4. 4LawasSarawakRemote interior, low service access
  5. 5Kota MaruduSabahRemote interior, low service access

Positive deviance

Among its ten nearest structural neighbours, Pakan (Sarawak) improved fastest since 2019: welfare momentum +8.7 vs +8.0 here (income growth %/yr minus poverty change pp/yr).

Where it differs most:

  • piped-water access: higher (72.22 → 90.91)
  • labour force participation: lower (70.00 → 64.10)
  • agriculture share: lower (5.17 → 3.77, √share)

A lead to investigate, not a prescription.

Lights

Tambunan after dark

NASA's Black Marble satellite pictures of the district at night, 2012 against 2025: +198% over 13 years. Lights track where people, roads and industry are; they are a proxy, not a measure of output. Play every year on the map.
201228 · 24th of 27
202582 · 21st of 27

Data

Every indicator, with its source

IndicatorLatestYearTrendSabah rankSource
Mean household consumption expenditureRM / monthRM 3,508202410/28 (desc.)hies_district
Gini coefficient of household incomeindex (0–1)0.30020244/28hh_inequality_district
Mean household incomeRM / monthRM 5,361202415/28hh_income_district
Median household incomeRM / monthRM 4,85420248/28hh_income_district
Absolute poverty rate% of households8.3%20243/28hh_poverty_district
Relative poverty rate% of households13.9%202412/28hh_poverty_district
Employment-to-population ratio% of working-age64.0%202412/27lfs_district
Labour forcethousand persons15.0202423/27 (desc.)lfs_district
Labour force participation rate% of working-age70.0%202414/27lfs_district
Unemployment rate% of labour force9.0%202417/27lfs_district
Households with electricity% of households100.0%20241/26hh_access_amenities
Households with piped water% of households72.2%202421/27hh_access_amenities
Households with improved sanitation% of households98.6%202425/27hh_access_amenities
GDP per capitaRM / person / yearRM 4,7832020single year26/27Derived
GDP at constant 2015 pricesRM million151.1202027/27 (desc.)gdp_district_real_supply
Agriculture share of GDP% of GDP26.7%202017/27 (desc.)Derived
Construction share of GDP% of GDP0.0%202021/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ DOSM suppresses values below RM5 mil, shown as 0
Manufacturing share of GDP% of GDP0.0%202024/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ DOSM suppresses values below RM5 mil, shown as 0
Mining & quarrying share of GDP% of GDP0.0%202013/27 (desc.)Derived
Services share of GDP% of GDP71.2%20206/27 (desc.)Derived
Population densitypersons / km²26202518/27 (desc.)Derived
Populationthousand persons33.7202524/27 (desc.)population_district
Population aged 65 and over% of population7.4%20253/27 (desc.)population_district
Non-citizen share of population% of population5.3%202524/27 (desc.)population_district
Real GDP growth, 2015–2020 average% / year1.0%2020single year11/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2020
Median income growth since 2019% / year6.3%2024single year5/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2019–2024
Night-light growth, 2015 to latest year% / year3.2%2025single year14/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2025
Population growth, 2020–latest% / year1.3%2025single year14/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ Growth window 2020–2025
Share of land that is lit at night% of land area4.4%202518/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Average night-time light radiancenW·cm⁻²·sr⁻¹0.06202519/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Total night-time light (gap-filled)radiance × km² (index)82202521/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002

Advise

AI Analyst brief

AI-generated · unreviewed draft

Situation

Tambunan is a remote interior district with a services-led structure and a significant agriculture presence in 2020 . Median household income reached RM 4,854 in 2024 and has improved since 2019 when it was RM 3,581 . Absolute poverty fell to 8.3% in 2024 from 16.7% in 2019, showing a sustained poverty-reduction trajectory . Official district real GDP is published to 2020 (RM 151 at 2015 prices) and model nowcasts project steady growth to a 2026 central estimate of RM 187 with an 80% interval RM 173–RM 226, so post-2020 GDP is modelled rather than official .

Read the full brief with sources · Ask a follow-up