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SabahKu

Tenom

Typology: Remote interior, low service access · Structural peers: Tambunan, Ranau, Keningau · Latest survey 2024 · district GDP 2020

WELFAREIncome: 41th percentile in Sabah (2024)IncomePoverty: 81th percentile in Sabah (2024)PovertyGini: 63th percentile in Sabah (2024)GiniGDP/cap: 23th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDP/capSTRUCTUREServices: 85th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveServicesAgri: 15th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveAgriMfg: 65th percentile in Sabah (2020) · descriptiveMfgDensity: 31th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveDensityMOMENTUMInc. growth: 50th percentile in Sabah (2024)Inc.growthGDP growth: 65th percentile in Sabah (2020)GDPgrowthLFPR: 46th percentile in Sabah (2024)LFPRJobless: 0th percentile in Sabah (2024)JoblessACCESSWater: 12th percentile in Sabah (2024)WaterPower: 64th percentile in Sabah (2024)PowerLIGHTSRadiance: 35th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveRadianceLit area: 46th percentile in Sabah (2025) · descriptiveLit areaLights growth: 27th percentile in Sabah (2025)Lightsgrowth
worse ← percentile in Sabah → betterstructure: lower → higher (not good/bad) boundary change
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Median household income

RM 4,161

▲ better than peers (RM 3,929)

17th of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

Absolute poverty rate

12.1%

▲ better than peers (14.6%)

6th of 28 in Sabah

DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

GDP per capita

RM 7,844

≈ in line with peers (RM 8,227)

21st of 27 in Sabah

Derived · 2020

Unemployment rate

11.1%

▼ worse than peers (8.7%)

27th of 27 in Sabah

DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

Diagnose

What's working, what's holding it back

Rule-based, not a black box: a strength is above its structural peers and not worsening; a concern is below peers and not improving. Thresholds are published.

What's working

  • +Poverty of 12.1% (2024) is 2.5 pp below its structural peers (14.6%), improving since 2022.Strength

    DOSM · hh_poverty_district · 2024

  • +Gini of 0.336 (2024) is 0.014 below its structural peers (0.350), broadly unchanged 2022–2024.Strength

    DOSM · hh_inequality_district · 2024

What's holding it back

  • −Unemployment of 11.1% (2024) is 2.4 pp above its structural peers (8.7%), broadly unchanged 2023–2024.Concern

    DOSM · lfs_district · 2024

Mixed signals

  • Piped water of 63.1% (2024) is 11.6 pp below its structural peers (74.7%), improving since 2022.

    DOSM · hh_access_amenities · 2024

  • Median income of RM 4,161 (2024) is 6% above its structural peers (RM 3,929), growing 1.9 pp/yr slower than Sabah (2022–2024).

    DOSM · hh_income_district · 2024

Project

Where the economy is heading

DOSM last published district GDP for 2020. Values after that are nowcasts built from Sabah's published sector growth, then projections to 2028. Shaded bands are 80% intervals calibrated on backtests; see the model card.
Real GDP, RM million (2015 prices)
4005006007008002016201820202022202420262028OFFICIALNOWCASTPROJECTION570
Official: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply (to 2020). Nowcast & projection: model forecast-2026.09.26-74e1d087. Backtest error at 3 years: 3.7% for this district.
Median household income, RM / month (nominal)
RM 3,500RM 4,000RM 4,500RM 5,000201920222024202520262027OFFICIALPROJECTIONRM 4,477
Official: DOSM hh_income_district (2019, 2022, 2024). Projection follows Sabah's long-run trend.

Diagnose · why

Luck of the sector mix, or its own merit?

Shift-share splits GDP growth into what Sabah (or Malaysia) grew anyway, what the district's sector mix added, and a competitive effect: how its sectors did against the same sectors elsewhere, the most honest answer to “is it doing well on its own merits?”
Why did Tenom's GDP change, 2015–2019?
All sectorsBenchmark growth: 53.1 RM milIndustry mix: 8.3 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -36.7 RM mil−9.8% ownMining & quarryingBenchmark growth: 0.0 RM milIndustry mix: 0.0 RM milCompetitive (own merit): 0.0 RM mil±0ServicesBenchmark growth: 36.9 RM milIndustry mix: 26.4 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -24.5 RM mil−25AgricultureBenchmark growth: 11.2 RM milIndustry mix: -17.1 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -10.2 RM mil−10ConstructionBenchmark growth: 1.7 RM milIndustry mix: 1.5 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -1.4 RM mil−1ManufacturingBenchmark growth: 3.3 RM milIndustry mix: -2.5 RM milCompetitive (own merit): -0.6 RM mil−1
RM million, 2015 prices. Benchmark: Sabah (+14.1% over the window). The three effects add up exactly to the actual change. Source: DOSM gdp_district_real_supply; offshore oil & gas (Supra) excluded.
Benchmark growthIndustry mixCompetitive (own merit)

DOSM suppresses sector values below RM5 mil (mining 2016, mining 2017, mining 2018…); treated as zero.

Diagnose · associated factors

Above or below what its structure predicts?

A model trained on all Malaysian districts estimates what a district with this structure would typically record. The gap and the factors behind the estimate are associations, not causes.

Median household income, 2024

Actual RM 4,161 vs expected RM 4,051: within model error

Unemployment rate-10.2%GDP per capita (2020)-8.9%Piped-water access-5.4%Population density-4.8%Agriculture share of GDP+4.6%Labour force participation+4.5%
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (ridge regression, exact linear contributions). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±RM 649.

Absolute poverty rate, 2024

Actual 12.1% vs expected 24.7%: better than structure predicts

Unemployment rate+6.3 ppServices share of GDP-4.2 ppGDP per capita (2020)+3.3 ppPiped-water access+2.9 ppLabour force participation-1.9 ppElectricity access-1.4 pp
How each factor moves the model's expectation relative to an average district (LightGBM, SHAP values). Associations, not causes. Cross-validated error ±4.1%.

Compare

Structural peers

The five districts nationally most similar in economic structure (income level, GDP per capita, sector mix, density, age, labour participation, water access), whatever their state.
  1. 1TambunanSabahRemote interior, low service access
  2. 2RanauSabahRemote interior, low service access
  3. 3KeningauSabahServices-led towns & suburbs
  4. 4LawasSarawakRemote interior, low service access
  5. 5Kota MaruduSabahRemote interior, low service access

Positive deviance

Among its ten nearest structural neighbours, Tambunan (Sabah) improved fastest since 2019: welfare momentum +8.0 vs +4.4 here (income growth %/yr minus poverty change pp/yr).

Where it differs most:

  • manufacturing share: lower (2.34 → 0.00, √share)
  • GDP per capita: lower (8.97 → 8.47, log)
  • piped-water access: higher (63.12 → 72.22)

A lead to investigate, not a prescription.

Lights

Tenom after dark

NASA's Black Marble satellite pictures of the district at night, 2012 against 2025: +110% over 13 years. Lights track where people, roads and industry are; they are a proxy, not a measure of output. Play every year on the map.
201272 · 19th of 27
2025151 · 17th of 27

Data

Every indicator, with its source

IndicatorLatestYearTrendSabah rankSource
Mean household consumption expenditureRM / monthRM 3,504202411/28 (desc.)hies_district
Gini coefficient of household incomeindex (0–1)0.336202411/28hh_inequality_district
Mean household incomeRM / monthRM 5,410202413/28hh_income_district
Median household incomeRM / monthRM 4,161202417/28hh_income_district
Absolute poverty rate% of households12.1%20246/28hh_poverty_district
Relative poverty rate% of households17.7%202417/28hh_poverty_district
Employment-to-population ratio% of working-age61.6%202418/27lfs_district
Labour forcethousand persons24.8202420/27 (desc.)lfs_district
Labour force participation rate% of working-age69.5%202415/27lfs_district
Unemployment rate% of labour force11.1%202427/27lfs_district
Households with electricity% of households100.0%20241/26hh_access_amenities
Households with piped water% of households63.1%202424/27hh_access_amenities
Households with improved sanitation% of households100.0%20241/27hh_access_amenities
GDP per capitaRM / person / yearRM 7,8442020single year21/27Derived
GDP at constant 2015 pricesRM million402.4202022/27 (desc.)gdp_district_real_supply
Agriculture share of GDP% of GDP15.3%202023/27 (desc.)Derived
Construction share of GDP% of GDP5.1%20204/27 (desc.)Derived
Manufacturing share of GDP% of GDP5.5%202010/27 (desc.)Derived
Mining & quarrying share of GDP% of GDP0.0%202013/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ DOSM suppresses values below RM5 mil, shown as 0
Services share of GDP% of GDP73.1%20205/27 (desc.)Derived
Population densitypersons / km²25202519/27 (desc.)Derived
Populationthousand persons54.2202520/27 (desc.)population_district
Population aged 65 and over% of population7.0%20256/27 (desc.)population_district
Non-citizen share of population% of population6.1%202521/27 (desc.)population_district
Real GDP growth, 2015–2020 average% / year1.2%2020single year10/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2020
Median income growth since 2019% / year3.4%2024single year14/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2019–2024
Night-light growth, 2015 to latest year% / year2.1%2025single year20/27Derived⚑ Growth window 2015–2025
Population growth, 2020–latest% / year1.1%2025single year16/27 (desc.)Derived⚑ Growth window 2020–2025
Share of land that is lit at night% of land area6.7%202515/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Average night-time light radiancenW·cm⁻²·sr⁻¹0.07202518/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002
Total night-time light (gap-filled)radiance × km² (index)151202517/27 (desc.)VNP46A4.002

Advise

AI Analyst brief

AI-generated · unreviewed draft

Situation

Tenom is a remote-interior district with a services-led GDP share and lower-than-average GDP per capita among Sabah districts, with GDP per capita RM 7,844 in 2020 .

Median household income in Tenom rose from RM 3,525 in 2019 to RM 4,161 in 2024, placing it above its structural peers in 2024 but with a slight recent worsening trend versus peers .

Absolute poverty has fallen from 17.2% in 2019 to 12.1% in 2024 and is stronger than peers on the scorecard .

Model nowcasts project gradual income and GDP increases through 2027 but these are modelled values with 80% intervals (income_median 2025 p50 RM 4,264, interval RM 3,923–RM 4,644; gdp_real 2024 p50 470, interval 445–549) .

Read the full brief with sources · Ask a follow-up